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Disappearing Deflation
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Deflation has come…but has it gone? In the economy at large, many of the prices that soared to all time highs in 2008 and then back to more traditional prices in 2009 are beginning to correct themselves. The rock-bottom prices from the auto industry which were so enticing just six to twelve months ago are now starting to recover and rise. Industrial machinery and equipment are following suit. One big factor in this pricing puzzle: steel. Although a complex tale, understanding what has happened in the steel industry during the last several years is important. Especially for growers who want to make the most cost effective equipment purchases to prepare their operations for coming economic opportunities.
In 2008, steel prices were rising sharply because of a global increase in demand, fueled greatly by massive building in developing nations like China, India and Brazil. Add to this these additional factors: higher input costs for things like iron ore and zinc; a weak US dollar and increased energy and material transportation costs. But when the global recession started, that demand plummeted rapidly as building projects came to a halt. Steel producers responded to the plunge in demand by cutting production.
According to Jeff Kabel, Vice President of Koch Metals Trading LTD., steel prices are volatile and will continue to be. As a company specializing in trading steel and other raw materials with a presence in almost 60 countries worldwide, Koch has a unique and comprehensive view of the steel industry across the world.
“We should expect to see continued
market volatility,” Kabel emphasized.
Today, global steel production is less than 70% of the 2008 peak. However, the gap in response time resulted in a large surplus of steel on the markets. Prices then declined. Now, the production cuts by steel producers have caught up to match the enormous decline in demand, and prices have started to rebound. Manufacturers have used most of the inventory they had, and demand has now started to climb.
This trend is expected to continue. Dr. Lowell Catlett of New Mexico State University, an economist and expert in agricultural economy, noted that most prices of major commodities and raw materials are going up once more. “You’re not going to find too many more bargains for anything,” Catlett suggested. “As the economy is coming out of the recession, most major commodities are going up. On anything that involves a lot of manufacturing and raw materials like steel, zinc or aluminum, prices have started to rise and are extremely unlikely to go down again. The recent deflationary cycle is complete. Waiting for prices to drop significantly once more is likely to be met with disappointment, and runs the risk of incurring higher pricing down the road.” |
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On the Rise:
Global population growth continues to put pressure on Ag Producers
According to the United Nations, our big world is about to get much bigger. While the world’s population is rising at what appears to be a modest rate – just 1% per year – that adds up to an additional 77 million people every year. If you do the math, you’ll see that by 2020, just around the corner, the world will be home to an additional 800 million. The population takeoff means that increasing demands on worldwide growers is inevitable. There are already many global links to US agriculture. While more than 80% of the US supply of strawberries is grown in California, a whopping 12% of them are now exported and gracing tables as far away as Japan. Pecans, once unknown in China, are now being imported from New Mexico – in fact, accounting for 10% of New Mexico’s entire pecan production just five years after being introduced to the Chinese market!
But more than novelty foods and premium fruit, the larger world population will drive demand for grains and oilseeds. Because most of the coming population growth will occur in grain deficit areas, including Africa and the less developed areas of Asia, a bigger question looms: with all of these mouths to feed, who will supply the grain needed? High yield countries like the US. That, according to Rich Pottroff, Chief Economist at Doane Agricultural Services is an advantage to US growers, and an advantage that is closing in fast. Wheat grown outside of Boise may well end up in bread baked in Botswana.
The distribution of wealth in the world is also changing. More and more people are entering the middle class, and that increase in money is usually felt first in food consumption. Per capita consumption of both meats and grains are on the rise across the globe. “In just 15 years, we have seen about one billion people rise out of poverty to the middle class. That’s never happened in 6,000 years of recorded history! This presents an entirely new level of demand, in addition to population growth itself,” explained Dr. Lowell Catlett, Dean of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at New Mexico State University, and an authority on agricultural economics. “This staggering growth brings both tremendous pressure and tremendous opportunities for American farmers.”
Both of these key drivers are changing the game. Population growth alone is expected to raise grain demand by 292 million metric tons (MMt) by 2020. If you factor in both population growth and the fact that people are consuming at a higher rate, that increase in demand could be as much as 474 MMt by 2020, according to Pottorff. “With that increase in demand for grain and oilseeds, we will need 729 million hectare (Mha) of grain by 2020. In 2008, that number was 694 million Mha. That’s a large increase – 86 million acres,” stated Pottorff. “While we know that some expansion will come from Latin America, especially Brazil and Argentina, there are infrastructure problems that limit development there. Since most of the population growth will be in areas where land has much lower yields, exporting countries like the US will have to step up production to meet the demand of the global grain trade.”
While most growers are aware of the coming demand increases, and the vital role exports will play, they are not so aware of how best to prepare themselves to benefit. Dr. Catlett believes putting a smart strategy into place now is crucial. “This is the time to formulate and start to execute your strategy,” he stressed. “First, growers have to think outside of what they are used to. We have to think about these export markets, and grow what they want or like to eat, not just surplus. Those growers who are thinking this through and preparing to grow what will export best to these markets will be the big winners.”
Selling to far away markets may be easier than most growers think. Local Departments of Agriculture in your state are excellent places to start making the connections necessary to begin. They can advise growers on where market potential exists overseas, and where that potential is likely to grow. If an operation is large enough, they can also contract directly with foreign governments or importers. For smaller growers, commodity groups and trade associations can provide powerful information, insight and opportunities.
Agricultural productivity will be key in addressing the coming increase in demand. Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Joachim von Braun, believes this factor must be addressed sooner rather than later. “Agricultural productivity growth is only one to two percent a year. This is too low to meet population growth and increased demand,” he stated. He went on to add that enhancing growth in productivity will come from investments in farm infrastructure that will promote higher yields. |